New Russia-Georgia Conflict Predicted

The Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, who predicted the war between Russia and Georgia last year, has suggested that a new war is "very likely" to break out this summer, partly because the current ceasefire is so fragile, and partly because Moscow hasn't yet fulfilled its strategic objectives in the South Caucasus region. This time, the analyst predicts, the Russians would take the Georgian capital and totally subjugate the country. "The only way you could avoid it," Felgenhauer says, "is if there's regime change in Tbilisi - or regime change in Moscow." Read more here and here.